On September 18th Eastern Time, international gold prices hit a new high, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $2,627 per ounce. Although there was a slight decline on the 19th, as of the time of writing, the price remained above $2,600, at $2,611 per ounce.

Earlier on September 18th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision-making meeting decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 5.5% to 4.75% to 5%, marking the first interest rate cut in four years.

This year, international gold prices have continuously set new historical highs, and the industry generally expects that interest rate cuts will become another key factor catalyzing the rise in gold prices.

Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist at Yuekai Securities, believes that the "front-running" trend in gold this year is obvious, and there is a risk of a pullback when the good news is realized. In the medium to long term, supported by factors such as global "de-dollarization" and intensifying geopolitical conflicts, gold prices may still be in a long-term upward cycle.

Xia Fengguang, Fund Manager at Rongzhi Investment, stated that gold trading on September 19th showed a volatile trend after the Fed's interest rate cut was realized. If the U.S. economy's recession exceeds expectations in the future, it will continue to be favorable for gold price trends; otherwise, gold prices will have little opportunity to perform.

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"The macro pricing logic for gold has changed. The real interest rate in the United States is no longer the only anchor for gold. The long-term trend of gold prices is determined by a combination of factors such as changes in the credit status of the U.S. dollar, and whether the U.S. economy enters a recession cycle," Xia Fengguang further explained.

In terms of supply and demand, Hualian Futures believes that when the supply and demand for gold are in a tight balance, it helps to drive up gold prices. However, when the supply and demand for gold are in a weak balance, it has little impact on gold prices. In the second quarter of 2024, global gold supply and demand were in a relatively loose state. Domestically, in the first half of 2024, gold supply increased year-on-year, while demand fell year-on-year, but the supply and demand for gold remained in a tight balance.

Regarding the impact of the current high gold prices, Zhu Hualei, Senior Investment Consultant at Jufeng Investment Consulting, said that rising gold prices will attract investors to continue to invest in gold bars, coins, and other gold products, with investors more inclined towards the expected appreciation brought about by the rise in precious metal prices. In contrast, the sales of gold jewelry may be negatively affected by the rise in gold prices. As gold prices rise, the cost of purchasing gold jewelry increases, which will suppress consumers' willingness to buy, leading to a decline in sales.

However, there are also market views that investment demand will become a new driver for the rise in gold prices in the future.