On June 21st, media reports indicated that since May of this year, China's imports of natural gas from the United States have surged by 58%, while imports from Russia have declined by 5.6%. Such data has left many people puzzled.
Why is China importing a large amount of natural gas from the United States and seemingly abandoning Russia?
China's Natural Gas Imports Soar
In the international natural gas field, Russia has always been the dominant player, often referred to as the "big brother" of the world's natural gas market. China, being the world's largest energy importer, and the friendly relations between the two countries, would logically suggest that cooperation in natural gas should naturally occur between them.
However, in the early years, Russia did not realize that China could become the world's largest energy importer. Prior to that, Russia had always regarded Europe as the "golden goose," thus laying a vast network of natural gas pipelines to Europe, delivering up to 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually.
For China, it was not until the relationship between China and Russia gradually warmed up in 2022 that a single natural gas pipeline was established. Moreover, this pipeline is not the "large pipeline" as Russia claimed, with a maximum output of 38 billion cubic meters of gas, which is far from sufficient to meet China's needs.
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Therefore, China has had to look for suitable natural gas partners in other countries. Since convenience is not an option, the choice then falls on whoever offers the lowest natural gas prices.
Data from this year shows that China's use of natural gas is increasing, with virtually all of it sourced from overseas purchases, particularly from the United States and Australia. These two countries transport natural gas to China through liquefied transportation methods.
In China, as times have progressed, natural gas has gradually begun to replace coal as one of the most important sources of energy in daily life. It is not only cost-effective but also very convenient to use, which has led many Chinese people to prefer natural gas. As a result, the usage rate of natural gas in China has continued to soar over the years.
According to data, by 2024, China is expected to use 415.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas. However, with the current domestic production capacity, China can only produce 245.8 billion cubic meters, which is far from enough to meet the daily needs of the population, let alone other sectors.In the progress of the times, this gap will continue to widen, highlighting the importance of natural gas to people. Although natural gas is not as precious as oil, with the increasing global usage of natural gas, the stored resources are far from sufficient.
Therefore, addressing the issue of natural gas is a significant challenge that our country will face in the coming period. Currently, the only way to alleviate the pressure on our country's natural gas is to seek natural gas exporting countries with relatively low prices. The United States, in order to maintain its position in the field of natural gas, will naturally offer much cheaper prices for our country's large purchases.
Why doesn't China import from Russia?
Looking at the growth rate of natural gas in recent years, the United States had already surpassed Russia in 2018, and the difference was not a small margin. Although the United States often surpasses Russia, it is not due to an increase in natural gas production. The reason for the increase is the United States' possession of a large amount of shale gas.
Shale gas and natural gas, in simple terms, belong to the same substance, and the content of shale gas is even higher than that of natural gas. However, shale gas has many limitations, so in order to better improve shale gas, its economic cost is relatively high.
Over the years, the United States has always wanted to become the largest energy exporter, so it has tried every means in the energy sector, which is why shale gas has been included in the normal range of natural gas.
However, when it comes to Russia's natural gas, the two are still incomparable. Russia's annual export volume of natural gas is more than ten times that of the United States. Although the United States has a lot of energy, its export volume is still not as high as Russia's.
In order to surpass Russia in the field of new energy, the United States is willing to lower the price of natural gas and engage in a price war. Many netizens have expressed that the United States cannot sustain this approach for a long time, and it is very likely to backfire.
But for China, importing natural gas from the United States also has many benefits. The first is that in recent years, international natural gas prices have been continuously declining, and the natural gas purchased by China from the United States will also cultivate land. The second reason is also due to various factors, considering that if energy can no longer be used one day, other energy sources can be substituted.
The last reason is naturally the price factor. China's import of natural gas from the United States has largely broken the monopoly in the international market. Therefore, in international competition, the United States must maintain a good relationship with China, this "big customer," and will offer prices much lower than other countries. These factors are simply too good for China.Russia: The Former Natural Gas "Tycoon"
Ultimately, it is Russia that has the final say in natural gas exports. Geographically, Russia controls a significant portion of the world's natural gas resources and is the most important energy supplier to European countries.
However, in the past two years, the relationship between Putin and Europe has not been very good, which has greatly affected the natural gas exchanges between the two parties. Moreover, Russia's previous over-reliance on Europe also indicates that in the future, Russia's natural gas will change according to China's needs.
The New Racetrack for the Future
In the past two years, the relationship between China and Russia has been continuously improving. Currently, Russia has already begun constructing natural gas pipelines to China. From these actions, it can be seen that in the future, Russia's natural gas will inevitably be used only by China and may even completely abandon the European market.
From the plan, it can be seen that Russia is currently aiming to clear three natural gas pipelines to China by 2030 and significantly increase the transportation volume, with a minimum of 130 billion cubic meters, which is also a good supplement to China's natural gas.
Of course, Russia's choice this time is bound to be correct. The previous decision to choose Europe over China was indeed somewhat shortsighted. At this time, Russia has a significant control over the European natural gas market, coupled with friendly cooperation with China, which will lead to a new pattern in the future natural gas field.
Conclusion
In summary, in the trade of importing natural gas, China will naturally choose the one that offers more discounts and cheaper prices, as there are no eternal friends in the international arena, only immediate interests.